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The data from recent quarters show growing evidence of two major phenomena: the slowdown in the trade of goods, but not in services, and the growing fragmentation of global trade and production. At the epicentre of it all is China, with its increasingly key role in global manufacturing, which is decoupling from the United States.

In these first few months of the year, Spain’s GDP has continued to grow at a significant rate, although the gap between the services and industrial sectors persists. Job creation is gaining traction, while inflation continues to decline, driven by the fall in energy prices. The trade deficit continued to increase in February and residential activity in Spain has had the best start to the year since 2007.

The independence of central banks seems indisputable, even more so in these times of pandemic, in which they have increased their use of unconventional policies and provided coverage for the high funding needs of states. In this article we will explore the theory and empirical evidence supporting the importance for central banks to maintain their independence.

The strong performance of the Spanish economy in 2025 is mainly explained by the vigour of domestic demand, driven by a dynamic labour market, the decline in interest rates, migration flows and European funds. These factors have more than offset the negative impact of the tariff hikes imposed on our goods exports to the US.

Geopolitical events have once again taken centre stage, almost relegating to the background the assessment of the economic indicators published over the past month. The US attack on Iran has caused a spike in geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, opening up a new source of risk in an environment characterised by the transactional stance of the Trump administration and the erosion of multilateral institutions.

The debate over working hours has intensified significantly in Spain, on the one hand, due to proposals for its reduction, and on the other, due to the rise in hours lost due to temporary sick leave. Beyond the impact on business costs and the labour market, the implications for labour productivity are of particular interest, with widely divergent readings since the pandemic in the case of Spain depending on whether we measure it per hour worked or per employee. This article places these debates within the broader the European context, drawing similarities and differences with other countries in our vicinity.

Despite the expected reduction in the deficit to around 5.0% of GDP in 2022, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. This leads to the question of whether it could experience difficulties in capturing this funding now that the ECB has announced that it will be reducing its purchases of public debt.

Last November the European Commission presented a proposal to reform the fiscal rules with a view to their re-implementation in 2024. The proposal does not change the debt and deficit targets of 60% and 3% (they are laid down in the EU treaties and changing them is rather infeasible); instead, it establishes them as medium-term targets and focuses on reforming the system to steer us towards them.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a critical area of economic and strategic competition among the major powers, and its development depends both on the dynamism of the private sector and on state action. Together, they shape the scope and effects of a technology whose complex ecosystem spans innovation and its monetisation, positioning in the value chain, its diffusion and adoption, and the management of its externalities. This article reviews – from a geoeconomic perspective – the strategies adopted by the US, China and the EU in key areas such as regulation, the role of the state in the industrial model, public support instruments, and cross-cutting policies such as professional training and sustainability. We conclude with a reflection on the future interaction of these governance models and the potential areas of friction and cooperation that may arise.

The recent escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the outbreak of the war in Iran, has once again placed energy at the centre of the global economic agenda. Although the scope and duration of the conflict remain uncertain, markets, especially those for oil and natural gas, have reacted swiftly. In this context, we analyse where the Spanish economy stands in the face of this new energy shock.

The economic recovery is expected to be consolidated in 2022, with GDP growth accelerating to around 6.0%. The pandemic could still generate new waves, either through the emergence of new, more contagious variants or due to the arrival of the cold, but we expect that their impact on the health system would be limited thanks to the progress made with the vaccines and that reimposing severe restrictions on activity would not be necessary.

The conflict in the Middle East has caused the financial environment to take a step backwards. Although it has not experienced significant tightening overall, it is less favorable to the performance of economic activity in the coming quarters. The risks are high, and while a swift resolution of the conflict could ease financial conditions, the prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to exponentially increase economic and financial costs if oil and derivative product stocks fall too low and can no longer cushion the contraction in energy supply. It is also important not to overlook market monitoring of public debt dynamics in several advanced economies, nor the financial risks associated with AI, both in terms of its ability to live up to expectations and its potential to disrupt established economic structures.

As a result of teleworking, remote education and the restrictions imposed on more social forms of entertainment, we have witnessed an increase in the consumption of technological goods compared to other categories of consumption. While in the first article of this Dossier we analysed the global demand for these goods during the pandemic and its possible persistence in the post-COVID world, in this article we focus on the case of Spain.

Execution of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds through the Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to gain traction, although the schedule is tight and the final stretch will require increased efforts. Indeed, by the deadline of 31 August, all investments funded with grants and loans need to have been allocated through the resolution of the relevant calls and tenders, and compliance with all milestones must be demonstrated to the European Commission. Also, Spain must submit payment requests before 30 September, while the Commission will have a deadline of 31 December to make the disbursements, as it will only have until then to certify the investments, that is, to verify that the money has been allocated to the committed projects.

As we approach the end of a year characterised by uncertainty and volatility in the economic and financial variables, the sensation is that the global economy is capable of absorbing the effects of the supply shocks, the increase in geopolitical risk and the rising interest rates much better than had been anticipated at the end of the summer.

The strong start to the year introduces some upward bias into the growth forecasts for 2023. Nevertheless, the risk that the second half of the year could be weaker, as the aggressive rate hikes are finally transmitted to the economy, may limit the growth expected for 2024.

2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt in the Portuguese real estate market with a reduction in sales and a slowdown in prices. All the indicators suggest that, over the coming quarters, the real estate market will continue to suffer a correction as a result of the uncertain environment, the fall in household incomes, the reduction in purchases by foreigners and the lower levels of investment in accommodation businesses.