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The test in 2022 has been demanding, but with the prospect of energy prices in 2023 still above those before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, economic policy will once again be at the heart of the debate and will have to roll up its sleeves to propose recipes to cushion this protracted shock.

In an environment still marked by high uncertainty, multiple factors could modify the course of the Spanish economy in the coming months, both for better and for worse. Three of them stand out: the evolution of energy prices, the resilience of the labour market and the execution of the European NGEU funds.

A year ago, a race began in which the participants did not know the distance to be travelled or the height of the obstacles they would encounter along the way. Now, it has become clear that not everyone has faced the same race. Many are now running the final lap of a 10,000-metre race, while others still have the unforgiving last mile of a marathon ahead of them. The priority at present is for the maximum number of participants to reach the finish line safe and sound.

The February storms and the initial impact of the conflict in the Middle East contributed to the stagnation of GDP in the first three months of the year. In the absence of the breakdown by component, the first GDP estimate indicates that consumption slowed, while investment accelerated sharply after the contraction of Q4 2025.

The wheel that lies at the centre of the Indian flag offers a symbol of progress and symbolises the values that the country must possess in order to become the new China, including the discipline and the wisdom needed to make the most of opportunities and correct weaknesses.

The data from recent quarters show growing evidence of two major phenomena: the slowdown in the trade of goods, but not in services, and the growing fragmentation of global trade and production. At the epicentre of it all is China, with its increasingly key role in global manufacturing, which is decoupling from the United States.

The independence of central banks seems indisputable, even more so in these times of pandemic, in which they have increased their use of unconventional policies and provided coverage for the high funding needs of states. In this article we will explore the theory and empirical evidence supporting the importance for central banks to maintain their independence.

The risk of overheating in the US economy has increased due to the latest and significant fiscal spending measures and the bottlenecks that are beginning to emerge in many sectors, in a context of strong recovery in economic activity. Unlike the US, in Europe the risk of inflation being persistently higher than expected is lower. Furthermore, we believe the ECB would take the necessary steps to moderate the effect that a potential rate hike in the US would have on the European yield curve.

Markets were influenced by the ongoing conflict in Iran and growing concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. In this context, central banks continued to raise interest rates, although they softened their rhetoric towards the end of the month. Sovereign debt yields rebounded sharply and spreads widened in the euro area, while the Fed's monetary tightening strengthened the dollar and the political crisis in France put pressure on the euro. In the stock markets, the technology sector continued to stand out compared to other stocks, and the price of oil remained high despite volatility in the final week of the month.

In these first few months of the year, Spain’s GDP has continued to grow at a significant rate, although the gap between the services and industrial sectors persists. Job creation is gaining traction, while inflation continues to decline, driven by the fall in energy prices. The trade deficit continued to increase in February and residential activity in Spain has had the best start to the year since 2007.

The strong performance of the Spanish economy in 2025 is mainly explained by the vigour of domestic demand, driven by a dynamic labour market, the decline in interest rates, migration flows and European funds. These factors have more than offset the negative impact of the tariff hikes imposed on our goods exports to the US.

Geopolitical events have once again taken centre stage, almost relegating to the background the assessment of the economic indicators published over the past month. The US attack on Iran has caused a spike in geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty, opening up a new source of risk in an environment characterised by the transactional stance of the Trump administration and the erosion of multilateral institutions.

The debate over working hours has intensified significantly in Spain, on the one hand, due to proposals for its reduction, and on the other, due to the rise in hours lost due to temporary sick leave. Beyond the impact on business costs and the labour market, the implications for labour productivity are of particular interest, with widely divergent readings since the pandemic in the case of Spain depending on whether we measure it per hour worked or per employee. This article places these debates within the broader the European context, drawing similarities and differences with other countries in our vicinity.

The Spanish economy is entering the final stretch of 2026 with solid growth and a more prominent role of domestic demand, although the rise in inflation and heightened uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Persian Gulf advise caution. In its regular review, the National Statistics Institute (INE) confirmed the momentum of the economy in Q2 and reinforced the view of growth driven mainly by domestic factors. As the third quarter draws to a close, indicators suggest that economic activity remains buoyant, driven by the dynamism of the labour market and services. However, the rise in energy costs has pushed inflation close to 5% and could reduce household spending power in the coming months.

Despite the expected reduction in the deficit to around 5.0% of GDP in 2022, the Treasury’s funding needs will remain high. This leads to the question of whether it could experience difficulties in capturing this funding now that the ECB has announced that it will be reducing its purchases of public debt.

Last November the European Commission presented a proposal to reform the fiscal rules with a view to their re-implementation in 2024. The proposal does not change the debt and deficit targets of 60% and 3% (they are laid down in the EU treaties and changing them is rather infeasible); instead, it establishes them as medium-term targets and focuses on reforming the system to steer us towards them.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a critical area of economic and strategic competition among the major powers, and its development depends both on the dynamism of the private sector and on state action. Together, they shape the scope and effects of a technology whose complex ecosystem spans innovation and its monetisation, positioning in the value chain, its diffusion and adoption, and the management of its externalities. This article reviews – from a geoeconomic perspective – the strategies adopted by the US, China and the EU in key areas such as regulation, the role of the state in the industrial model, public support instruments, and cross-cutting policies such as professional training and sustainability. We conclude with a reflection on the future interaction of these governance models and the potential areas of friction and cooperation that may arise.

The recent escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, with the outbreak of the war in Iran, has once again placed energy at the centre of the global economic agenda. Although the scope and duration of the conflict remain uncertain, markets, especially those for oil and natural gas, have reacted swiftly. In this context, we analyse where the Spanish economy stands in the face of this new energy shock.

Execution of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds through the Recovery and Resilience Plan continues to gain traction, although the schedule is tight and the final stretch will require increased efforts. Indeed, by the deadline of 31 August, all investments funded with grants and loans need to have been allocated through the resolution of the relevant calls and tenders, and compliance with all milestones must be demonstrated to the European Commission. Also, Spain must submit payment requests before 30 September, while the Commission will have a deadline of 31 December to make the disbursements, as it will only have until then to certify the investments, that is, to verify that the money has been allocated to the committed projects.

2022 will be remembered not only for the intensification and persistence of inflationary pressures but also for the sudden shift in the direction of monetary policy, bringing to an end more than a decade of low rates and ultra-dovish policies.