The macro-financial environment behind the economic outlook Financial markets CaixaBank Research Tue, 03/17/2026 - 09:44
What to expect from the international economy in 2026 International economy Rita Sánchez Soliva Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:52
Financial Markets Daily Report 17 March 2026 Signs of easing tensions in energy markets supported a modest improvement in risk sentiment. Reports of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, alongside comments from the IEA on potential reserve releases, pushed Brent crude down by around 3% to $100/barrel. Global equities rebounded, volatility declined, and the US dollar weakened (EUR/USD rose toward 1.15). Spain's outlook The Spanish economy: between resilience and slowdown The Spanish economy closed 2025 with solid growth and has kicked off 2026 with figures that remain strong, albeit somewhat lower than those of last year. Together, the indicators published to date are consistent with CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario, set out in the… CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Activity & growth Japan, at the dawn of a new cycle: fiscal tensions and monetary normalisation in the Land of the Rising Sun Japanese sovereign yields have rebounded since 2022, particularly in the past year, and have exceeded the 2% threshold for the first time in nearly three decades. These movements have sparked a wide debate about the country’s fiscal sustainability and the direction of its… Luís Pinheiro de Matos Jesús Manuel Carrera Moreno 17 March 2026 Financial markets The macro-financial environment behind the economic outlook The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt. CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Opinion The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle East The outbreak of the war in the Middle East has once again triggered a spike in global uncertainty. As has occurred repeatedly in recent years, we yet again find ourselves in a context in which it is very difficult to make reliable forecasts. It happened during the… Oriol Aspachs 17 March 2026 Portugal outlook Stormy start to the year for the Portuguese economy CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Recent developments 10 questions on the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling David Martínez Turégano 12 March 2026 Foreign sector Spain’s foreign sector performed better than expected in 2025 Sergio Díaz 12 March 2026 Opinion Geopolitics and tariffs: a new twist for economic resilience José Ramón Díez 12 March 2026 World outlook The international economy once again follows developments in the US CaixaBank Research 13 March 2026 Activity & growth What to expect from the international economy in 2026 Rita Sánchez Soliva 16 March 2026 Publications Monthly ReportMarch 2026 | No. 50917 March 2026 Sectorial ReportTourism. Spanish tourism sector: from post-pandemic rebound to sustainable growth S1 2026 SpainSpain’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook11 March 2026 PortugalPortugal’s Macroeconomic & Financial Outlook13 February 2026 Sectorial ReportAgrifood. The Spanish agrifood sector gains momentum 2025 Sectorial ReportReal Estate. The Spanish real estate sector is in full expansionary phase S2 2025 Sectorial ReportSectoral Observatory S1 2025 Sectorial ReportManufacturing Industry 2023 Opinion Editorial Geopolitics and tariffs: a new twist for economic resilience José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets Key points of the month The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle East Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics Recommended Opinion The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle East Oriol Aspachs 17 March 2026 Financial markets The macro-financial environment behind the economic outlook CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Portugal outlook Stormy start to the year for the Portuguese economy CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Activity & growth The Spanish economy in 2026 Oriol Carreras Baquer 17 March 2026 Activity & growth Japan, at the dawn of a new cycle: fiscal tensions and monetary normalisation in the Land of the Rising Sun Luís Pinheiro de Matos Jesús Manuel Carrera Moreno 17 March 2026 Spain's outlook The Spanish economy: between resilience and slowdown CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026 Activity & growth What to expect from the international economy in 2026 Rita Sánchez Soliva 16 March 2026 Foreign sector Spanish exports amid challenges to their competitiveness Catalina Becu 13 March 2026 World outlook The international economy once again follows developments in the US CaixaBank Research 13 March 2026Most readWhat to expect from the international economy in 2026The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle EastGeopolitics and tariffs: a new twist for economic resilienceThe macro-financial environment behind the economic outlookThe Spanish economy in 2026 NewsletterBeing informed now ismore important than everGet our latest updates Sign in Hot topics Climate change & green transition Inflationary pressures Podcasts Guerra en Irán: implicaciones para la economía mundial y para España 16/03/2026 Forecasts Financial markets Interest rate (%)Update date 10-03-20262024202520262027 Fed Funds 4.25 3.50 3.00 3.00 ECB Refi 3.24 2.15 2.15 2.15 Macroeconomic GDP (%)Update date 10-03-20262024202520262027 Euro area GDP 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 Spain GDP 3.5 2.8 2.4 2.0 US GDP 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.0 Team Javier García ArenasSenior economist Rita Sánchez SolivaEconomist Jesús Manuel Carrera MorenoResearch assistant Patricia EstebanCommunication Alberto GrazianoSenior Data Scientist Judit Montoriol GarrigaLead economist Jesús ViscarriOrganization Meet us Oriol Carreras BaquerSenior economist Josep Mestres DomènechLead economist Luís Pinheiro de MatosEconomist Carolina CruzOrganization David del ValSenior economist Eduard Alcobé GarciaData scientist Oriol AspachsHead of Spanish Economics Meet us David Martínez TuréganoSenior economist Roser FerrerSenior economist Beatriz Villafranca SerranoEconomist Mar Bisquert PerlesData scientist Adrià Morron SalmeronLead economist Ariadna Vidal MartínezLead economist Enric FernándezChief Economist Meet us Nuria BustamanteLead economist Sandra Jódar RosellDirector of Strategic Planning Marina Tombas SuñéData Scientist Zoel Martín VilatóEconomist Imelda EstebanSenior economist Maitane LizarragaAnalyst Catalina BecuResearch assistant Meet us Mireia CrusellsAnalyst David Cesar HeymannEconomist Ana Rincón GarcíaOrganization José Antonio Sánchez PalominoData scientist José Ramón DíezHead of International Economics & Markets Sergio DíazEconomist María Romero MeléndezEconomista Meet us Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa FusterEconomist Léopold JouvenEconomist Pedro Álvarez OndinaEconomist Isabela Lara WhiteEconomist Ana María PorrasOrganization Meet usPrint
Spain's outlook The Spanish economy: between resilience and slowdown The Spanish economy closed 2025 with solid growth and has kicked off 2026 with figures that remain strong, albeit somewhat lower than those of last year. Together, the indicators published to date are consistent with CaixaBank Research’s forecast scenario, set out in the… CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Activity & growth Japan, at the dawn of a new cycle: fiscal tensions and monetary normalisation in the Land of the Rising Sun Japanese sovereign yields have rebounded since 2022, particularly in the past year, and have exceeded the 2% threshold for the first time in nearly three decades. These movements have sparked a wide debate about the country’s fiscal sustainability and the direction of its… Luís Pinheiro de Matos Jesús Manuel Carrera Moreno 17 March 2026
Financial markets The macro-financial environment behind the economic outlook The risk map is demanding and, in addition to the prevalence of geopolitical disruptions, the financial markets have shown sensitivity to the promises, doubts and transformations of artificial intelligence (AI) and to the sustainability of public debt. CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Opinion The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle East The outbreak of the war in the Middle East has once again triggered a spike in global uncertainty. As has occurred repeatedly in recent years, we yet again find ourselves in a context in which it is very difficult to make reliable forecasts. It happened during the… Oriol Aspachs 17 March 2026
Portugal outlook Stormy start to the year for the Portuguese economy CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Recent developments 10 questions on the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling David Martínez Turégano 12 March 2026
Foreign sector Spain’s foreign sector performed better than expected in 2025 Sergio Díaz 12 March 2026
World outlook The international economy once again follows developments in the US CaixaBank Research 13 March 2026
Activity & growth What to expect from the international economy in 2026 Rita Sánchez Soliva 16 March 2026
Sectorial ReportTourism. Spanish tourism sector: from post-pandemic rebound to sustainable growth S1 2026
Geopolitics and tariffs: a new twist for economic resilience José Ramón Díez Head of International Economics & Markets
The Spanish economy amid the outbreak of war in the Middle East Oriol Aspachs Head of Spanish Economics
Financial markets The macro-financial environment behind the economic outlook CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Portugal outlook Stormy start to the year for the Portuguese economy CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Activity & growth Japan, at the dawn of a new cycle: fiscal tensions and monetary normalisation in the Land of the Rising Sun Luís Pinheiro de Matos Jesús Manuel Carrera Moreno 17 March 2026
Spain's outlook The Spanish economy: between resilience and slowdown CaixaBank Research 17 March 2026
Activity & growth What to expect from the international economy in 2026 Rita Sánchez Soliva 16 March 2026
World outlook The international economy once again follows developments in the US CaixaBank Research 13 March 2026