Geopolitics

Index

Geopolitics

The chip shortage is going nowhere fast

Jordi Singla
2022: return to normality?

José Ramón Díez
Geopolitical risk: a new obstacle for the recovery

José Ramón Díez
The impact of a rise in the price of oil and gas in Spain: possible scenarios

Oriol Carreras Baquer
Winds of stagflation

José Ramón Díez
The Spanish economy in the face of the war in Ukraine

Oriol Aspachs
Geopolitical uncertainty and economic growth: the indirect impact of the Ukraine conflict in Spain

Oriol Carreras Baquer Javier García Arenas
Portugal: what impact will the conflict in Ukraine have on growth?

Teresa Gil Pinheiro
Impact of the war on the economic outlook: lower growth and higher inflation

Rita Sánchez Soliva
Portugal: a first assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine

Tiago Belejo Correia Vânia Duarte
The war between Russia and Ukraine will slow the recovery of the Spanish economy

Oriol Carreras Baquer
Which sectors are most affected by the conflict in Ukraine?

Judit Montoriol Garriga Pedro Álvarez Ondina Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster
Russia puts the global outlook for oil in check

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano
European dependence on Russia: a primary issue

Clàudia Canals Luís Pinheiro de Matos Rita Sánchez Soliva
It is time for fiscal policy

Oriol Aspachs
The rise in energy prices, also taking its toll on Spain’s current account balance

Nuria Bustamante Sergio Díaz
Key points of the Action Plan: what measures will be taken in Spain to alleviate the impact of the war in Ukraine?

Javier García Arenas
The turn of the central banks

José Ramón Díez
Global value chains: yesterday, today and tomorrow
Clàudia Canals
EU and China: mapping out a strategic interdependence

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Did consumption grow in Spain in Q2 2022? What the real-time data tell us

Eduard Llorens i Jimeno
The dance continues in the commodity market

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano Pedro Álvarez Ondina
Infographic. The impact of the war in Ukraine on Spain’s agrifood sector
The agrifood sector is suffering the consequences of the war in Ukraine
Judit Montoriol Garriga
The war in Ukraine is affecting trends in the agrifood sector
Judit Montoriol Garriga
Spain’s agricultural sector and its dependence on international agricultural commodity markets
Judit Montoriol Garriga Pedro Álvarez Ondina
Europe and the mission to decouple from Russian oil: an achievable goal in the short term

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano
The outlook for gas supplies in Europe: a balancing act

Luís Pinheiro de Matos Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster
Winds of change

José Ramón Díez
Economic policy in the face of the energy challenge: supporting the most vulnerable without distorting the economy

Javier García Arenas
Geopolitics, geopolitics and, for dessert, geopolitics

Clàudia Canals
China’s symptoms: more than COVID

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
EU and China: mapping out a strategic interdependence II

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
What is happening with industry in the world?

Luís Pinheiro de Matos Rita Sánchez Soliva
The Middle Kingdom and its neighbours (part II): two case studies

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
The Middle Kingdom and its neighbours (part I): a geo-economic perspective

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Quo vadis, globalisation? (part II): the fragmentation of the global economy

David del Val
Quo vadis, globalisation? (part I): the long slowdown

David del Val
Oil, a tense market under strain

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano
What will de-risking mean for the EU?

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
The search for economic stability in an unstable world

José Ramón Díez
Is there «early» evidence of de-risking? (part I): the US and China

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Is there «early» evidence of de-risking? (part II): the EU

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Election year in the US

Ricard Murillo Gili
‘Quo vadis’ Europe?

José Ramón Díez
The decoupling of the US and China accentuates the fragmentation of the global economy

David del Val
US elections in a new phase

José Ramón Díez
2025 global outlook: in search of a new normal

José Ramón Díez
Exposure of the Chinese economy to a US tariff hike

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
Exposure of the European economy to a US tariff hike

David Martínez Turégano
Impact of tariff hikes on Spanish exports to the US: which sectors could be the hardest hit?

Judit Montoriol Garriga Anna Bahí Esteba
The importance of the trade in goods between Spain and the United States

Sergio Díaz
Now is not the time for inaction

José Ramón Díez
Be careful what you wish for (and be wary of your neighbour’s economy): Trump and the dollar

David del Val
Exposure of the European economy to a US tariff hike: a perspective through values chains

David Martínez Turégano
China and the stockpiling of commodities: strategy or growth?

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano
Trump agenda: a question of balance

José Ramón Díez
Inflation in China: in which direction will the snake creep?

Luís Pinheiro de Matos
The times are changing

José Ramón Díez
A shift in the EU’s political priorities

David Martínez Turégano
Ukraine’s reconstruction and its potential energy implications for Europe

Beatriz Villafranca Serrano
Germany’s fiscal shift and the bund: when security comes at a price

David del Val
The diversification of Spain’s export destinations

Anna Bahí Esteba
The Spanish economy in the face of the Trump shock

Oriol Aspachs
Trump tariffs: an own goal?

José Ramón Díez
Anatomy of a depreciation: the dollar in times of economic policy uncertainty

David del Val
The scene after the storm

José Ramón Díez
Tariff tensions and reconfiguration of trade flows: impact on Spain
David Martínez Turégano Judit Montoriol Garriga
The exposure of employment in Spain to the US: key sectors and characteristics

Sergio Díaz Anna Bahí Esteba
Hegemonic stability in times of change

José Ramón Díez
Import dependencies and competitive emergencies for Europe’s industry

David Martínez Turégano
Uncertainty and US tourism
David Cesar Heymann Eduard Alcobé Garcia
The EU’s difficult farewell to Russian energy

María Romero Meléndez
India vs. China: a growth perspective

Luís Pinheiro de Matos Antonio Marta Miranda
Tariffs and strategic dependencies: two sides of the same coin

José Ramón Díez
Acuerdo comercial entre EE. UU. y la Unión Europea
CaixaBank Research
5% of GDP on defence: Why? What for? Is it feasible?

David Martínez Turégano
Do tariffs work as a fiscal revenue tool in the US?

Isabela Lara White
New realities, old risks

José Ramón Díez
Populism in Italy

Enric Fernández
Political polarisation

Enric Fernández
Geopolitical uncertainty and economics: Deep impact?

Javier García Arenas
The US and China: escalation of the trade conflict

Clàudia Canals
The threat of protectionism in the global economy

Clàudia Canals
The challenge of America First for globalisation: threat or opportunity?

Àlex Ruiz
The benefits and costs of globalisation

Clàudia Canals
Globalisation at a historic crossroads: deglobalisation or reglobalisation?

Javier García Arenas
The challenges of financial globalisation

Roser Ferrer
Politics is the name of the game: political dynamics and risks in 2019 and beyond

Clàudia Canals Javier García Arenas
The geopolitics of energy

Ricard Murillo Gili
Polarisation: the legacy of the financial crisis and other contextual forces

Clàudia Canals Javier Ibáñez de Aldecoa Fuster
Political polarisation: the phenomenon that should be on everyone’s lips

Javier García Arenas
The deep roots of polarisation, or on the need to recover the lost narrative

Àlex Ruiz
The illiberal temptation

Enric Fernández
Populism and extreme political views in turbulent times: an empirical analysis

Javier García Arenas
Financial volatility and political uncertainty: who says there is fear?

Javier García Arenas
Geopolitics in a globalised world: let the data speak for themselves!

Javier García Arenas
International trade: first impression of the First Phase

Clàudia Canals
Politics and economics in 2017: an inseparable duo

Javier García Arenas
Inequality and populism: myths and truths

Javier García Arenas
Risks in 2018: (geo)politics and international trade

Clàudia Canals
Illiberal forms of economic policy: evolution or radical change from the existing consensus?

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
The illiberal shift in economic policy: let the data speak!

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
The causes of the illiberal shift of economic policy: shedding some light on an open debate

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
The effects of the illiberal shift: little evidence, much concern

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
How COVID-19 will change the way we produce

Clàudia Canals
Capitalism: crisis? What crisis?

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
Capitalism, variety is the spice of life

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
Capitalism(s) for tomorrow’s world

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
The promises of the varieties of capitalism, or on the impossibility of having it all

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
The US-China technology conflict: an initial insight

Clàudia Canals Jordi Singla
US: what will the new administration bring?

Clàudia Canals
Democracy and COVID-19: the decisive moment

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
Democracy and the pandemic: more light than darkness

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
Have democracies been more lax with lockdowns and testing?

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz
Have democracies achieved better control over social interactions?

Álvaro Leandro Àlex Ruiz

Geopolitics

We analyse the major geopolitical trends and thier effects on the financial markets and the economy.

Catedral de San Patricio en Nueva York. Photo by Oldmitiadis Fragkidis on Unsplash

Opinion

New realities, old risks

José Ramón Díez

18 Sep 2025

Tropa de soldados desfilando. Photo by Filip Andrejevic on Unsplash

Geopolitics

5% of GDP on defence: Why? What for? Is it feasible?

David Martínez Turégano

16 Sep 2025

Pin con la bandera de EE. UU. sobre un billete de dólar. Photo by Maerk Studzinski on Unsplash

United States of America

Do tariffs work as a fiscal revenue tool in the US?

Isabela Lara White

16 Sep 2025

Pasaporte de los Estados Unidos encima de un billete de avión. Photo by Global Residence Index on Unsplash

Tourism

Uncertainty and US tourism

David Cesar Heymann

Eduard Alcobé Garcia

29 Aug 2025

Estados Unidos

Acuerdo comercial entre EE. UU. y la Unión Europea

CaixaBank Research

29 Jul 2025

Mapa parcial de Asia hecho en madera con China e India destacados. Photo by Goodman Vhamdyo on Unsplash

Emerging economies

India vs. China: a growth perspective

Luís Pinheiro de Matos

Antonio Marta Miranda

16 Jul 2025

Moneda de dólar con la efigie de la Estatua de la Libertad. Photo by Derrick Treadwell

Opinion

Tariffs and strategic dependencies: two sides of the same coin

José Ramón Díez

15 Jul 2025

Cables conectados a puertos USB. Photo by Lightsaber Collection on Unsplash

Foreign sector

Import dependencies and competitive emergencies for Europe’s industry

David Martínez Turégano

3 Jul 2025

Depósitos de gas. Photo by Patrick Federi on Unsplash

Commodities

The EU’s difficult farewell to Russian energy

María Romero Meléndez

3 Jul 2025

Sectoral Observatory

Tariff tensions and reconfiguration of trade flows: impact on Spain

David Martínez Turégano

Judit Montoriol Garriga

1 Jul 2025

Mecánico reparando el motor de un coche. Photo by Kate Ibragimova on Unsplash

Labour market & demographics

The exposure of employment in Spain to the US: key sectors and characteristics

Sergio Díaz

Anna Bahí Esteba

12 Jun 2025

Pintada callejera "Be the change" ("Sé el cambio"). Photo by Maria Thalassinou on Unsplash

Opinion

Hegemonic stability in times of change

José Ramón Díez

12 Jun 2025

Investment flows in times of Trump 2.0

Where is the activity of the Spanish agrifood sector concentrated?

Spain’s position in the face of global vulnerabilities in public finances

New realities, old risks

5% of GDP on defence: Why? What for? Is it feasible?

Do tariffs work as a fiscal revenue tool in the US?

Uncertainty and US tourism

Acuerdo comercial entre EE. UU. y la Unión Europea

India vs. China: a growth perspective

Tariffs and strategic dependencies: two sides of the same coin

Import dependencies and competitive emergencies for Europe’s industry

The EU’s difficult farewell to Russian energy

Tariff tensions and reconfiguration of trade flows: impact on Spain

The exposure of employment in Spain to the US: key sectors and characteristics

Hegemonic stability in times of change